THE EVE EDITION
FIRST BLUSH | TUE OCT 6
Tuesday’s women’s sports day happens almost entirely in Beijing, and most of it before breakfast on the East Coast. The China Open’s round of 16 opens at 11:00 PM Monday with Mirra Andreeva against Daria Snigur, and by morning four quarterfinalists will be set in a draw that has already lost its top two seeds, Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka. Karolína Muchová and Linda Nosková both hold WTA Finals places that a bad day would put in question, and Naomi Osaka and Nikola Bartůňková each have a quarterfinal within reach. Iga Świątek, Zheng Qinwen and Elina Svitolina are in the other half of the round-of-16 draw, and NXT stages a 20-woman battle royal that will name Kelani Jordan’s challenger for Halloween Havoc. The WNBA semifinals return Wednesday with both Game 2s.
#7 Karolína Muchová vs. #12 Naomi Osaka
Karolína Muchová and Naomi Osaka meet in the China Open round of 16 with more than a quarterfinal riding on it for Muchová. She is seventh in the race for the eight WTA Finals places, and because Wimbledon champion Linda Nosková holds the eighth through the Grand Slam champion rule, seventh is effectively the last place decided on points. Muchová needed three sets to get past Liudmila Samsonova, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2, on Sunday. Osaka has looked sharper, beating Sára Bejlek 7-6, 6-4 the same day, and her serve can take a match away from anyone in a handful of games.
EVE’s Edge: Muchová’s variety against Osaka’s first strike. If Muchová can drag Osaka into long, low rallies and make her hit one more ball, she moves on; if Osaka lands her first serve, the match will be short.
#4 Mirra Andreeva vs. Daria Snigur
Mirra Andreeva opens the Tuesday program in Beijing against the week’s most surprising run. Daria Snigur, ranked 46th, has beaten Katarzyna Kawa, Jasmine Paolini and Taylah Preston, the last of them 6-1, 6-0, to reach her first WTA 1000 round of 16. Andreeva, the Roland Garros champion, trailed Polina Kudermetova 4-2 in the first set on Sunday and then won 10 of the next 11 games for a 6-4, 6-1 result. She is fourth in the WTA Finals race with 5,722 points, and a deep run here would make her place close to safe. It is their first tour-level meeting.
EVE’s Edge: Snigur’s flat ball has rushed better players all week. Andreeva wins by taking time away first, so watch who owns the middle of the court in the opening games.
#5 Linda Nosková vs. #19 Ekaterina Alexandrova
Linda Nosková needed 55 minutes to beat Viktorija Golubic 6-2, 6-1, hitting 31 winners, and the Wimbledon champion has given away little all week. She is eighth in the WTA Finals race, with her Wimbledon title as a second way in. Her series with Ekaterina Alexandrova is level at one win each, and the latest went 6-1, 6-1 to Nosková in Stuttgart in April. Alexandrova came from a set down to beat Diana Shnaider 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 and is back in the Beijing round of 16 for the first time since 2019, after first-round exits in each of the past three years.
EVE’s Edge: Alexandrova’s flat, early ball punishes anything short, especially second serves. Nosková has to take that time away early, as she did in Stuttgart.
#26 Nikola Bartůňková vs. Sinja Kraus
Nikola Bartůňková’s 6-4, 6-3 win over Aryna Sabalenka left Beijing without either of its top two seeds in the last 16 for the first time since 2015. It was the 20-year-old Czech’s second Top 10 win, after Belinda Bencic at the Australian Open, and her 22nd match win of the season. She arrived at a career-high #34 and now has to back it up against Austria’s Sinja Kraus, who beat Dayana Yastremska 6-1, 6-4. Bartůňková leads their head-to-head 1-0 from an ITF match in Hechingen last year, and the winner reaches the quarterfinals.
EVE’s Edge: The day after the biggest win of a career is a trap. Watch Bartůňková’s first-serve percentage in the opening games; if it holds, a first WTA 1000 quarterfinal is hers to take.
20-Woman Battle Royal
NXT’s Tuesday episode features a 20-woman battle royal that decides who challenges NXT Women’s Champion Kelani Jordan at Halloween Havoc on Saturday, October 31. The field draws from NXT, Raw, SmackDown, TNA, AAA and EVOLVE and includes ZARIA, the NXT Women’s North American Champion, TNA Knockouts Champion Xia Brookside, AAA Reina de Reinas Champion La Catalina and EVOLVE Women’s Champion Nikkita Lyons. Kiana James and Ivy Nile are also entered. The winner gets three and a half weeks to build toward the title match.
EVE’s Edge: With champions from four promotions in one ring, the order of elimination tells the story. Watch which titleholders get targeted first, since a belt is no protection once the ropes are crowded.
ELSEWHERE
The WNBA semifinals resume Wednesday with both Game 2s. New York visits Atlanta at 7:30 PM on ESPN (Dream lead 1-0), with the Dream waiting on Allisha Gray’s hand, and Las Vegas visits Golden State at 9:30 PM on Peacock (Valkyries lead 1-0), with Jewell Loyd’s leg the Aces’ concern.
Beijing’s other round-of-16 pairings include Iga Świątek against Iva Jovic; their schedule awaits the official order of play. Monday night’s Raw also settles Stephanie Vaquer’s challenger for Money in the Bank on Saturday, October 10, with Becky Lynch facing Liv Morgan.